Below is the chart Kendal Van Dyke maintains for us in Orlando showing year over year registration counts. Don’t I wish this was baked in to the admin tools! You can see the trend has been remarkably consistent over the years (and we see the same with PASS Summit registrations, except there you see spikes just before every price bump). This chart is also what drove me to the tempo we’re on this year, just routine mentions of the event until D-60, at that point we’ll shift to at least a weekly email plus other channels, and then at D-14 (or so) we’ll go to daily mentions. Now you could could argue that if we did that sooner we might change when that hard turn upward starts, but I’m guessing we wouldn’t. What the chart does tell me if that if I wait until D-60 I’m not going to behind the proverbial curve.
We started earlier this year which has a lot of advantages, but I’m not sure it will convert to a sustainable lead. I’d guess that we’re getting the devoted attendees that sign up as soon as they year about it, whether that is week 30 or week 12.
Remember that we use registrations to track progress, but the measure that matters is attendance, and we only get to measure that on game day!